Crypto AnalyzenMy previous Bitcoin analysis was published shortly before the end of 2025. At that time, I expected a green yearly candle closing below the 2024 mid-high. However, the annual chart is now showing a different configuration.
On the annual time frame, three upward impulse waves are clearly visible. The first two impulses were followed by deep corrections, and the third impulse that began in 2023 reached the 2025 all-time high of 126,199.63. The 2025 close formed a red candle with a large upper wick, which statistically increases the probability of corrective development rather than immediate continuation to new highs.
A test of the 2024 mid-high at 108,353.00 remains likely, especially since this level is located just below 109,887.87, corresponding to 50% of the 2025 upper tail.
In the first two weeks of 2026, the market attempted to break above the 2025 opening level of 93,576.00.
On the monthly chart, we observe a gap between the October 2025 low (102,000.00) and the December 2025 high (94,588.99). The lower boundary of this gap has already been tested during the first weeks of 2026. If reclaimed, price may advance toward 108,353.00.
If the market chooses a downward path, the focus will shift to the 2026 opening level, the lower tail of the 2025 candle (74,508.00), and especially the major gap zone 74,508.00 – 69,000.00, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 15,476.00 → 126,199.63.
Key levels to watch in 2026
Upside scenario
- Gap 94,588.99 – 102,000.00 → 108,353.00
- 109,887.87 (50% of 2025 upper tail)
Downside scenario
- 87,648.00 — 2026 open
- 74,508.00 — lower tail 2025
- Main gap 74,508.00 – 69,000.00
(50% Fib of 15,476.00 – 126,199.63) - Even lower gaps remain possible if this zone breaks
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