
Gold Next Move: Breakdown Before Breakout?
Gold’s current structure reflects a complex multi-phase market environment, where short-term bullish movements coexist with mid-term bearish expectations before a potential macro continuation.
1. Quarterly (3-Month) Structure
To understand where gold is going, we need to step back and start from the 3-month chart.

At the start of April, price moved just below the Q4 2025 high (4,549.86), establishing a mid-low at 4,509.97.
This behavior confirmed liquidity interaction below prior highs before continuation attempts.
However, the upside was capped at 4,900.84, aligning with the 25% level of the quarterly upper wick — a technical rejection zone.
The initial expectation for Q2 was a continuation toward 5,132.91 (50% of the upper wick), followed by a higher time frame rejection.
This rejection has now materialized on the monthly timeframe.
2. Monthly Compression
April closed as an inside candle. This is important — it signals compression, not direction.

This structure keeps both directional scenarios open:
- Bearish: Breakdown below 4,509.97
- Bullish: Breakout above 4,890.67
Such formations typically precede expansion phases.
3. Weekly Liquidity Dynamics
In early May, price tapped 4,496.34, marking a 50% retracement of the prior leg up.

But the more important signal lies in the long lower wick from March. It suggests that liquidity remains untested below.
Key technical levels:
- 4,389 → 25% of lower wick
- 4,298 → 50% of lower wick
- Near 4,312 → 2026 opening level
A previous attempt to reach lower liquidity failed, increasing the probability of a renewed downside move.
4. Daily Timeframe Behavior
Interestingly, while the weekly chart leans bearish, the daily chart suggests a short-term upside move.

At the end of April:
- Price entered an order block
- Strong bullish reaction followed
However, Friday’s session showed weakness:
- Price tested the weekly open
- Closed below the daily open
This suggests a potential liquidity grab before directional continuation.
5. Probable Scenario
The most coherent scenario based on current structure:
- Short-term upward movement
- Test of 4,748 (62% Fibonacci retracement)
- Rejection at resistance
- Return into the order block
- Breakdown toward 4,298
6. Strategic Interpretation
This market is not trending cleanly — it is rotating through liquidity phases:
- Phase 1: Short-term bullish retracement
- Phase 2: Mid-term bearish continuation
- Phase 3: Macro bullish expansion
7. Key Levels Summary
- Resistance: 4,748 → 4,900
- Pivot zone: ~4,500
- Target liquidity: 4,298
- Expansion target: 5,132
Final Conclusion
Gold is likely to complete a corrective upward move before entering a deeper retracement phase.
The zone around 4,298 stands out as the most probable base for the next major bullish continuation.
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