Gold Q1 2026 Analysis: Liquidity Sweep Completed, Is a Rally Next?

The first quarter of 2026 has come to an end, and with it, we now have a completed 3-month candlestick to incorporate into the broader monthly analysis. This addition provides a more comprehensive perspective on market structure and potential directional bias.

Quarterly Structure and Key Signal

The Q1 2026 three-month candlestick closed with a long upper wick, which is typically considered an early indication of a potential reversal.

However, it is important to emphasize that this signal alone does not confirm a bearish trend. Instead, it highlights a shift in market dynamics that requires further confirmation.

March Sell-Off – Market Reset

The first major shock to market participants occurred in March. A sharp and aggressive downside move swept through the market, effectively:

• Liquidating late long positions
• Triggering panic among retail gold buyers
• Resetting market positioning

This decline appears to have been executed with precision, suggesting strong control by larger market participants. With weak hands now largely cleared out, attention shifts toward the possibility of a renewed upward move.

Key Levels – Upper Wick of Q1 Candle

To assess potential upside targets, we map key retracement levels of the upper wick:

• 5,364.98 — 75%
• 5,132.91 — 50%
• 4,900.84 — 25%

These levels will serve as reference points for evaluating bullish continuation scenarios.

Expansion of the 2026 Range

March also marked a significant expansion of the yearly range, establishing a new 2026 low at 4,097.98, which nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous major uptrend.

This suggests that the corrective phase has approached a critical technical zone, often associated with trend continuation setups.

Fibonacci Levels for the 2026 Range

To better define risk and structure within the current environment, Fibonacci levels for the full 2026 range are as follows:

• 4,418.78 — 23.6%
• 4,670.62 — 38.2%
• 4,847.51 — 50%
• 5,024.40 — 61.8%
• 5,276.24 — 78.6%

These levels are essential for tracking both pullbacks and potential breakout confirmations.

Current Market Positioning

At present, the market has tested both upward and downward directions. Notably:

• The downside move nearly reached the Q4 2025 high at 4,549.86, acting as a key structural support
• The downward phase appears to be largely completed
• Price action suggests accumulation rather than distribution

Outlook

Taking into account:

• The completion of a deep corrective move
• The liquidity sweep in March
• The proximity to key Fibonacci and structural levels
• The broader macro environment

The probability now favors a continuation to the upside.

While volatility is expected to remain elevated, the current structure supports a bullish bias in the coming period, with the previously defined upper wick levels acting as potential targets.