Crypto AnalyzenThis post is part of my ongoing series focused on annual and monthly timeframes. The goal is not to “predict” the market, but to define key structural levels, risk zones, and potential continuation scenarios based on higher-timeframe behavior.
When looking at the annual and monthly charts, the current technical picture for Solana appears more bearish than in my previous optimistic outlook.
On the annual chart, SOL typically forms very wide yearly ranges. The large red 2025 candlestick — despite printing an all-time high at 295.83 — does not currently support a clear bullish continuation scenario. From a structural perspective, the yearly range remains wide and unresolved, leaving the asset vulnerable to further downside moves.
On the monthly chart, a classic head-and-shoulders structure is clearly visible, with the neckline located around 126.30.
The downward projection of the right shoulder overlaps with the gap zone and points to levels below the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the full 8.00–295.83 range, creating a technically important confluence area on the downside.
If price breaks below the neckline, the next major target becomes the Monthly gap zone:
Monthly Gap: 79.28 – 33.70
Midpoint ≈ 56.79
!!! Key Levels to Watch
• 115.41 — Middle of April 2025 Order Block
• 104.67 — Lower boundary of that zone
• 101.80 — 2024 Opening Level
• 79.61 — Upper edge of Monthly Gap
• 69.60 — 78% Fibonacci retracement
To the upside, price may be limited by the gap zone between 146.91 and 168.79 (December 2025 high – October 2025 low). This zone currently represents the key resistance area on the monthly timeframe.
🧭 Scenario-based outlook (trading plan idea – not advice)
I assume that price may retest the upper gap zone, where downside continuation risk increases. In such a scenario, the potential targets lie toward the lower zone, in line with the head-and-shoulders downside projection.
The neckline area near 126.30 remains critical. Price reaction here will likely help determine whether the downside continuation scenario becomes confirmed or is invalidated.
This analysis is not financial advice and does not aim to predict the future. It is a higher-timeframe framework designed to outline key levels, scenarios, and risk areas that may guide decision-making going forward.