TRX (TRON): Relative Strength or Delayed Squeeze? (March 2026 - Monthly Outlook)

Despite the decline at the beginning of the year in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other majors, Tron has continued to hold its ground...

Such a “lag” relative to the broader market may indicate the potential for a sharp downward squeeze.

The annual chart, when compared to the structure observed at the beginning of the year, confirms the previously outlined assumption of a downward price pullback.

Given the broader global context, I am not currently considering an upward scenario.

Monthly Structure

The monthly chart presents the reversal formation more clearly.

The distribution phase appears to have been completed last year (August–September 2025).

January formed a candlestick with a long upper wick and a small body — a significant signal suggesting potential continuation to the downside.

In February, price attempted to move higher, reaching approximately 25% of the January upper wick, before falling below the December low.

However, even a close at the December 2025 opening level does not materially alter the broader bearish structure.

Key Levels to Watch

If price attempts another move higher, attention should be focused on:

0.2867 – February 2026 opening level

At the time of writing, price is testing the 2026 opening level at 0.2846.

Downward Scenario

0.2547 – 2025 opening level

Target zone:
0.2011–0.18 – the gap between the 2025 low (0.2011) and the 2021 high (0.18)
0.1909 – midpoint of the gap